Welcome to Lose-your-shirt


Within these pages you will discover the many different ways that bookmakers take your money. Highlighting these facts will make you think twice about just dumping good money after bad and perhaps enlighten you to ways that the bookie can actually be beaten. If you think back to your very first bet, was it a Grand National punt, a Gold Cup gamble, a Derby dobbin or a playground plunge. whatever it was there was only two outcomes you either won or you lost it is as simple as that. Bookmakers are as the name suggests makers of a gambling “book” and they are not going to stack it in anyones favour except their own. After all they are in the business of making money and become very anti establishment if they think that they don't have the upper hand. Ideally then we need to find a way of turning the tables on them without them realizing the fact. One way is to purposely give them money by losing the bets with them. We can do this no problem just find a no hoper and lump some money on it. There is however a “yang” to this “ying” as there is with everything in this universe and this particular “yang” is called a betting exchange. What if you persuaded somebody else to lump a chunk of money on the no hoper but instead of it going into the bookies pocket it went into yours. This is exactly what you can do on the exchanges. Bookmakers make their money by creating an “overround”. This means that, if the overround was 109% then the bookies make 9% profit. An overround is formed if the odds percentage is over the actual odds percentage. For instance, if there are two outcomes of a particular event such as tossing a coin then the “true odds” for each outcome (either heads or tails) would be even or 50%. Bookmakers would not give you these odds they would perhaps offer odds of 4/5 for heads and 4/5 for tails. these odds equate to 55.6%  To find the “probability percentage” we do the following calculation:


5 / (5 + 4) * 100 = 55.6%


When we add these together we get 111.2%. This 11.2% over the 100% true probability is what we call the overround and is the bookmakers profit. On the exchanges there is a back price and a lay price for each outcome and you have the ability to bet against the outcome of an event or lay the horse, team, politician or whatever other market is offered, however the “overound” on the exchange if you lay each outcome at the offered price is usually in a negative state ie under 100%, invariably about 98%. This means that should you lay each selection for an equal profit you would be 2 down for each 100 layed. However if the exchange overround on the back prices were for instance 102% and we layed all the selections at the back price and they all got matched then we would be 2 up for every 100 layed 
 

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